MODEL VERDICT
Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $23.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $23.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $24.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $23.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $23.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $21.56 | -7.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $25.15 | +7.6% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $12.75 | -45.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $26.73 | +14.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $41.83 | +78.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $20.01 | -14.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $30.82 | +31.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $20.34 | -13.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $20.61 | -11.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.81 | -2.4% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $23 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (-18.1%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-24%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.57 | 24.42 | 6.67 | 132.38 | 42.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.62 | 28.65 | 20.94 | 35.87 | 6.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.19 | 19.17 | 16.10 | 24.25 | 2.53 |
| P/FCF | 16.95 | 16.32 | 10.98 | 23.12 | 3.94 |
| P/FFO | 12.50 | 11.35 | 5.13 | 21.32 | 4.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.77 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 14.61 | 15.14 | 6.25 | 22.82 | 5.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.77 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.43 | 7.54 | 6.12 | 9.24 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates KIM's fair value at $22.81 vs the current price of $23.38, implying -2.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.42 (P10) to $25.43 (P90), with a median of $22.88.
KIM's current P/E of 28.2x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +16.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
36 analysts cover KIM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.25 (range: $21.00 — $26.00), implying +3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (12), Hold (23), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KIM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8140.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.