MODEL VERDICT
Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $23.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $23.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $22.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $22.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $20.41 | Below threshold | +6.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $12.10 | -48.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $27.11 | +15.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $28.07 | +19.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $12.89 | -45.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $25.90 | +10.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $21.71 | -7.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $24.79 | +5.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.14 | -18.7% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $28 |
| Base Case (-6.0%) | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.85 | 20.89 | 6.67 | 132.38 | 43.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.14 | 28.65 | 18.71 | 35.87 | 7.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.64 | 19.17 | 12.21 | 24.25 | 3.54 |
| P/FCF | 15.80 | 15.20 | 9.68 | 23.12 | 4.77 |
| P/FFO | 11.97 | 11.34 | 5.13 | 21.32 | 5.32 |
| P/TBV | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.77 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 13.73 | 13.51 | 6.25 | 22.82 | 5.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.77 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.27 | 7.54 | 5.30 | 9.24 | 1.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates KIM's fair value at $19.14 vs the current price of $23.55, implying -18.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.09 (P10) to $22.58 (P90), with a median of $18.81.
KIM's current P/E of 42.8x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +82.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover KIM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.14 (range: $21.00 — $26.00), implying +2.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (12), Hold (23), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KIM trades at the 7000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (36.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KIM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (40.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2660.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.