MODEL VERDICT
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $108.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $107.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $104.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $107.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $101.64 | Below threshold | +4.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $145.70 | +34.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $120.06 | +10.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $68.46 | -37.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $115.99 | +6.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $95.78 | -11.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $144.82 | +33.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $116.64 | +7.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.84 | +18.4% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $100 | $110 | $121 | $131 | $142 |
| Conservative (16%) | $105 | $116 | $128 | $139 | $150 |
| Base Case (24.2%) | $113 | $125 | $137 | $149 | $161 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $121 | $133 | $146 | $159 | $172 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.47 | 32.73 | 21.04 | 52.54 | 11.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.75 | 29.81 | 23.51 | 36.98 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.86 | 17.60 | 9.99 | 21.61 | 3.61 |
| P/FCF | 114.17 | 57.77 | 13.90 | 342.01 | 127.90 |
| P/FFO | 14.99 | 15.00 | 11.11 | 19.48 | 2.87 |
| P/TBV | 2.85 | 2.60 | 2.39 | 3.67 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 48.92 | 33.84 | 23.92 | 104.47 | 32.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.84 | 2.60 | 2.39 | 3.67 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.37 | 7.69 | 6.77 | 11.09 | 1.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FRT's fair value at $128.84 vs the current price of $108.77, implying +18.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $113.98 (P10) to $144.47 (P90), with a median of $129.05.
FRT's current P/E of 22.7x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -6.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover FRT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $111.30 (range: $105.00 — $127.00), implying +2.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4420.0% to approximately $157. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.