MODEL VERDICT
Realty Income Corporation (O) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $67.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $66.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $65.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $63.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $58.17 | Below threshold | +8.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $67.92 | +1.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $77.13 | +15.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $27.43 | -59.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $53.63 | -20.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $67.24 | +0.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $48.68 | -27.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.67 | +1.0% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 52× | 57× (Current) | 62× | 67× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 |
| Conservative (5%) | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
| Base Case (0.5%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 54.24 | 51.67 | 44.67 | 82.29 | 12.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.22 | 42.33 | 36.04 | 47.67 | 4.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.74 | 19.22 | 12.34 | 24.53 | 4.21 |
| P/FCF | 16.80 | 15.15 | 12.77 | 22.79 | 4.21 |
| P/FFO | 17.63 | 15.29 | 14.38 | 23.62 | 3.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.45 | 2.72 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 21.97 | 22.39 | 19.55 | 23.98 | 2.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48 | 1.27 | 1.18 | 2.30 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.60 | 11.61 | 8.87 | 15.15 | 2.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates O's fair value at $67.67 vs the current price of $67.00, implying +1.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.47 (P10) to $77.39 (P90), with a median of $67.29.
O's current P/E of 57.3x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +144.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 54.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover O with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $63.38 (range: $60.00 — $69.00), implying -5.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: O trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (54.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that O's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1220.0% to approximately $75. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.