MODEL VERDICT
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $30.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $29.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $29.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $28.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $25.68 | Below threshold | +9.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $45.55 | +50.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $16.75 | -44.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $29.30 | -3.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $34.04 | +12.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $48.90 | +61.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $35.55 | +17.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.53 | +17.4% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
| Conservative (7%) | $27 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $37 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.87 | 33.53 | 20.98 | 101.64 | 33.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.29 | 25.01 | 21.77 | 28.91 | 2.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.38 | 10.44 | 8.62 | 16.70 | 3.32 |
| P/FCF | 12.44 | 12.24 | 11.13 | 13.75 | 0.92 |
| P/FFO | 11.01 | 10.99 | 9.79 | 12.71 | 1.00 |
| P/TBV | 2.53 | 2.52 | 1.88 | 2.93 | 0.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.48 | 2.47 | 1.84 | 2.84 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.79 | 5.65 | 4.68 | 6.59 | 0.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRX's fair value at $35.53 vs the current price of $30.27, implying +17.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.65 (P10) to $36.36 (P90), with a median of $32.97.
BRX's current P/E of 24.2x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +3.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.9x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
30 analysts cover BRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.54 (range: $29.00 — $34.00), implying +0.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.2% is 14.0 percentage points above the 6-year average (14.2%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$30. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BRX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 60.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.