MODEL VERDICT
Regency Centers Corporation (REG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $79.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $76.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $76.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $77.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $69.72 | Below threshold | +9.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $79.72 | +0.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $66.71 | -15.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $64.59 | -18.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $49.46 | -37.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $82.28 | +4.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $62.49 | -20.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $65.34 | -17.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.34 | -8.4% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $68 | $74 | $81 | $87 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $69 | $76 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (8.1%) | $71 | $78 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 | $101 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.05 | 35.54 | 22.24 | 175.35 | 53.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.18 | 33.67 | 28.82 | 39.44 | 3.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.59 | 13.70 | 12.30 | 15.81 | 1.14 |
| P/FCF | 20.17 | 17.13 | 14.76 | 32.43 | 6.61 |
| P/FFO | 18.07 | 17.52 | 13.74 | 22.06 | 2.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.84 | 1.84 | 1.36 | 2.24 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 26.70 | 27.01 | 18.85 | 33.93 | 6.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.68 | 1.28 | 2.11 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.83 | 8.63 | 7.37 | 10.68 | 0.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates REG's fair value at $72.34 vs the current price of $79.00, implying -8.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.06 (P10) to $81.97 (P90), with a median of $73.87.
REG's current P/E of 37.4x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +59.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover REG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.22 (range: $74.00 — $85.00), implying +1.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3240.0% to approximately $105. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.