MODEL VERDICT
Regency Centers Corporation (REG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $80.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $80.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $79.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $78.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $61.79 | -21.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $39.85 | -49.3% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $79.95 | +1.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $69.97 | -11.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $105.16 | +33.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $67.98 | -13.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $96.98 | +23.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $62.46 | -20.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $59.13 | -24.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.24 | -5.6% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (24%) | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 | $112 |
| Conservative (40%) | $95 | $102 | $110 | $118 | $126 |
| Base Case (61.1%) | $109 | $118 | $127 | $136 | $145 |
| Bull Case (83%) | $124 | $134 | $144 | $154 | $165 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.80 | 35.04 | 22.24 | 175.35 | 54.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.93 | 32.57 | 28.82 | 39.44 | 3.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.46 | 13.77 | 12.30 | 18.76 | 2.17 |
| P/FCF | 25.67 | 26.42 | 14.76 | 32.43 | 6.51 |
| P/FFO | 17.51 | 17.52 | 13.49 | 22.06 | 3.13 |
| P/TBV | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.36 | 2.24 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 26.56 | 25.29 | 17.14 | 33.93 | 5.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.28 | 2.11 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.76 | 8.63 | 7.37 | 10.68 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates REG's fair value at $74.24 vs the current price of $78.65, implying -5.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.62 (P10) to $80.65 (P90), with a median of $73.86.
REG's current P/E of 27.9x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +15.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
32 analysts cover REG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.14 (range: $74.00 — $85.00), implying +1.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 37.4% is 12.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$101. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2860.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.