MODEL VERDICT
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $63.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $69.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $68.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $67.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $118.18 | +84.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $117.54 | +83.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $53.91 | -15.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $106.41 | +66.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $139.58 | +118.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $118.48 | +85.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $67.01 | +4.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $70.46 | +10.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $59.64 | -6.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $54.04 | -15.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $107.01 | +67.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.53 | +85.3% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $59 | $64 | $70 | $75 | $81 |
| Conservative (15%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $79 | $85 |
| Base Case (23.0%) | $66 | $72 | $79 | $85 | $91 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $70 | $77 | $84 | $91 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.49 | 21.94 | 13.94 | 46.93 | 13.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.90 | 21.64 | 10.05 | 42.03 | 12.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.97 | 19.45 | 9.07 | 42.64 | 12.64 |
| P/FCF | 34.56 | 16.55 | 12.94 | 114.11 | 39.80 |
| P/FFO | 22.98 | 17.57 | 11.78 | 45.64 | 13.29 |
| P/TBV | 32.62 | 29.97 | 27.89 | 40.00 | 6.48 |
| P/AFFO | 23.44 | 17.78 | 12.02 | 46.52 | 13.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 56.00 | 40.00 | 17.01 | 170.83 | 52.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.30 | 12.12 | 5.97 | 22.58 | 6.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HALO's fair value at $118.53 vs the current price of $63.96, implying +85.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $95.93 (P10) to $140.49 (P90), with a median of $116.26.
HALO's current P/E of 25.0x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +18.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.5x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
27 analysts cover HALO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $78.33 (range: $56.00 — $96.00), implying +22.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HALO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (33.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5560.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.