Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$529.70
→
Intrinsic$885.67
+67%
$522.20$885.67$1,608.17
Market implies 11% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests HCA could have 67% upside at 21% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $530, the market prices in 11% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (21%).
Range: Bear $522 → Bull $1608. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 17% | 19% | 21% | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $1170 | $1285 | $1408 | $1539 |
| 10% | $728 | $804 | $886 | $972 |
| 12% | $495 | $551 | $610 | $674 |
| 14% | $351 | $394 | $441 | $490 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1608) offers 204% upside at 25% growth, 8% discount
- 40% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (11%) ≤ historical CAGR (21%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($522) implies 1% downside at 17% growth, 12% discount
- Using 21% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$9.31B
Year 2$11.27B
Year 3$13.64B
Year 4$16.50B
Year 5$19.97B
Terminal$316.49B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate21.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$7.69BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.