HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)
Valuation Overview•Is HCI Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 97/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Elite compounder with fortress-level fundamentals across every core pillar.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
HCI exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 675.0% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($1.1B) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (22.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 47.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $242.9M | +20.2% | +22.3% | +26.7% | +12.2% | |
| EBITDA | $116.3M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $73.4M | +171.9% | — | — | +16.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.60 | +179.8% | — | +48.1% | +15.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | +35.6% | — | +44.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 66.5% | 49.0% | 34.1% | 31.8% |
| Operating Margin | 47.9% | 30.7% | 16.2% | 13.3% |
| Net Margin | 32.6% | 20.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% |
| FCF Margin | 30.4% | 44.6% | 31.0% | 25.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $5.13 | $5.45 | +6.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $4.87 | $7.25 | +48.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.44 | $4.90 | +100.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $4.47 | $5.18 | +15.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $4.49 | $5.35 | +19.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-2.75 | $0.31 | +111.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.27 | $0.47 | +74.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $3.48 | $4.21 | +21.0% |
Total return is +11.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -14.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -10.6% | -19.9% | — |
| 1Y | +11.0% | -14.0% | +1.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +42.7% | +23.4% | +8.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +13.1% | -0.1% | +8.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +20.5% | +6.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) valuation, health, and returns.
HCI Group, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +166.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $435.38)
HCI Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $435.38 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $170.88 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $126.50 (implying -22.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
HCI Group, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 97/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 675.0%.
HCI Group, Inc. pays a 0.9% dividend yield, covered by a 6% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.1% buyback yield.
HCI Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +20.2% 1Y revenue growth and +179.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +22.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 14 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 100% of recent quarters with a 15-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -22.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for HCI Group, Inc. include: -27.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.34x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.