HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jun 18, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 14 analysts22.7% Above Target
HCI trades 22.7% above Wall Street's consensus target of $126.50.
Current Price$163.63
Average Target$126.50
Target
Current
Low$75.00
Median$133.00
High$165.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E9.4x
(Value)
PEG Ratio0.20
(Undervalued)
Implied Growth-26.3%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread71.1%
(Wide Disagreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes HCI achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 9.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 14 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
HCI Price Target Analysis
Updated June 21, 2026As of June 21, 2026, HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $126.50, based on estimates from 14 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $163.63, this represents a potential downside of -22.7%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.13B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $75.00 to a high of $165.00, representing a 71% spread in expectations. The median target of $133.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 10 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, HCI trades at a trailing P/E of 6.6x and forward P/E of 9.4x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -26.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $181.09, with bear and bull scenarios of $114.09 and $238.60 respectively. Model confidence stands at 50/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+27.1%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
9.8x
(Value)
Peers with Coverage
7 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UPCUniverse Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $2M | $2.95 | — | — | — | — | — |
 HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | $706M | $23.27 | $36.00 | +54.7% | Buy | 5.4x | 9 |
 FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | $3.7B | $27.49 | $31.00 | +12.8% | Hold | 7.0x | 9 |
 KINSKingstone Companies, Inc. | $235M | $16.25 | — | — | Buy | 6.3x | 4 |
 PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc. | $3.0B | $111.70 | $110.25 | -1.3% | Buy | 11.4x | 11 |
 NODKNI Holdings, Inc. | $326M | $15.91 | — | — | — | — | — |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $32.5B | $91.18 | $102.57 | +12.5% | Buy | 9.8x | 34 |
 RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | $12.9B | $299.17 | $310.75 | +3.9% | Hold | 7.3x | 28 |
 VERXVertex, Inc. | $1.8B | $11.12 | $18.44 | +65.8% | Buy | 13.9x | 17 |
 IIIVi3 Verticals, Inc. | $438M | $19.82 | $28.00 | +41.3% | Buy | 17.4x | 15 |
HCI — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HCI stock.
What is the HCI stock price target for 2026?
HCI's consensus price target is $126.5, -22.7% below the current price of $163.63. The 14 analysts tracking HCI see downside risk at present valuations.
Is HCI a buy, sell, or hold?
HCI has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 14 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 10 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $126.5 implies -22.7% downside from current levels.
Is HCI stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 9.4464x, HCI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $126.5 implies -22.7% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can HCI stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $165 for HCI, while the most conservative target is $75. The consensus of $126.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $239 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover HCI stock?
HCI is moderately covered, with 14 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 10 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the HCI stock forecast?
The 12-month HCI stock forecast based on 14 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $126.5, with estimates ranging from $75 (bear case) to $165 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $181, with bear/bull scenarios of $114/$239.
What is HCI's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HCI's fair value at $181 (base case), with a bear case of $114 and bull case of $239. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 50/100.
What is HCI's forward P/E ratio?
HCI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 6.6x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy HCI stock?
Analysts are cautious on HCI, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $126.5 (-22.7% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do HCI price targets vary so much?
HCI analyst price targets range from $75 to $165, a 71% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $126.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $114-$239 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
Intrinsic Valuation
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
Check Valuation
Historical Returns
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Calculate
DCA Calculator
See how regular investing compounds over time.
Run Numbers
Peer Comparison
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.
Compare