MODEL VERDICT
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $45.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $46.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $49.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $47.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $39.51 | -14.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $16.65 | -63.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $16.06 | -65.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $35.84 | -22.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $15.25 | -66.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $23.17 | -49.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $56.69 | +23.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $15.65 | -65.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $32.43 | -29.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.64 | -20.3% | 100% | 67 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $41 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $42 | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.44 | 22.15 | 13.15 | 84.67 | 28.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.57 | 18.55 | 13.24 | 24.50 | 5.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.63 | 11.91 | 8.78 | 14.69 | 2.26 |
| P/FCF | 27.71 | 21.94 | 7.12 | 55.63 | 16.14 |
| P/FFO | 11.59 | 11.53 | 7.76 | 17.44 | 3.45 |
| P/AFFO | 15.62 | 16.80 | 9.27 | 21.25 | 5.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.49 | 2.65 | 2.12 | 7.14 | 1.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.55 | 1.21 | 0.81 | 2.99 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates HGV's fair value at $36.64 vs the current price of $45.96, implying -20.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.65 (P10) to $37.86 (P90), with a median of $31.50.
HGV's current P/E of 51.6x compares to the industry median of 18.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +186.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover HGV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $50.40 (range: $40.00 — $59.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (14), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HGV trades at the 8120th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HGV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4310.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.