MODEL VERDICT
Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $27.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $28.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $28.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $27.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $25.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $26.83 | -3.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $33.37 | +20.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $2.75 | -90.1% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $26.71 | -3.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $41.85 | +50.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $27.02 | -2.6% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $29.05 | +4.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.71 | -7.3% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $23 | $28 | $32 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $19 | $24 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $20 | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.36 | 1.46 | 0.59 | 2.20 | 0.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.27 | 0.52 | 1.81 | 0.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.81 | 1.78 | 1.03 | 12.01 | 4.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates HIPO's fair value at $25.71 vs the current price of $27.73, implying -7.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.20 (P10) to $29.75 (P90), with a median of $24.53.
HIPO's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 12.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +3.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
6 analysts cover HIPO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.38 (range: $17.50 — $45.00), implying +2.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HIPO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8340.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.