MODEL VERDICT
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $15.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $35.69 | +119.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $31.18 | +91.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $23.37 | +43.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $29.31 | +80.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $50.37 | +209.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $43.24 | +165.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $30.30 | +86.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $22.06 | +35.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.05 | +78.5% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $11 | $16 | $20 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $21 | $25 |
| Base Case (-4.5%) | $8 | $11 | $15 | $19 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $8 | $10 | $14 | $19 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.40 | 9.91 | 2.68 | 21.67 | 6.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.95 | 9.84 | 6.90 | 13.63 | 2.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.36 | 8.03 | 5.39 | 11.90 | 2.62 |
| P/FCF | 9.99 | 7.55 | 4.16 | 19.21 | 5.51 |
| P/FFO | 7.60 | 5.98 | 1.81 | 16.52 | 5.55 |
| P/AFFO | 10.97 | 10.99 | 2.68 | 22.31 | 7.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 1.38 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLF's fair value at $29.05 vs the current price of $16.28, implying +78.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.47 (P10) to $37.54 (P90), with a median of $31.36.
HLF's current P/E of 7.4x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -47.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover HLF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $13.00 — $20.00), implying -1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7460.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.