MODEL VERDICT
Haleon plc (HLN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $9.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $9.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $9.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $9.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $9.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $7.61 | -18.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $16.98 | +81.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $9.80 | +4.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $8.78 | -6.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $8.05 | -14.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $7.93 | -15.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $4.31 | -54.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $17.28 | +84.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $17.38 | +85.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $9.52 | +1.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $8.77 | -6.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.59 | +23.5% | 100% | 84 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (6%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (8.4%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.38 | 31.57 | 28.08 | 34.29 | 2.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.88 | 22.54 | 21.82 | 24.64 | 1.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.72 | 20.85 | 19.05 | 22.12 | 1.37 |
| P/FCF | 21.84 | 21.47 | 21.30 | 23.11 | 0.86 |
| P/FFO | 26.30 | 27.08 | 22.98 | 28.07 | 2.28 |
| P/AFFO | 32.64 | 32.72 | 28.86 | 36.27 | 3.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.50 | 2.49 | 2.25 | 2.77 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.72 | 3.65 | 3.37 | 4.22 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLN's fair value at $11.59 vs the current price of $9.38, implying +23.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.16 (P10) to $12.44 (P90), with a median of $11.79.
HLN's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -29.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.4x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover HLN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.20 (range: $10.20 — $10.20), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.5% is 2.8 percentage points above the 4-year average (11.6%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$9. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 310.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.