MODEL VERDICT
Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $212.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $213.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $233.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $232.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $235.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $260.55 | +22.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 14 industry peers | $182.58 | -14.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $254.29 | +19.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 14 industry peers | $279.46 | +31.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 14 industry peers | $274.28 | +29.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $272.10 | +28.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $29.07 | -86.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $231.64 | +9.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $233.55 | +9.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $254.23 | +19.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $279.46 | +31.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $280.90 | +32.2% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $188 | $203 | $218 | $233 | $248 |
| Conservative (5%) | $193 | $209 | $224 | $240 | $255 |
| Base Case (1.8%) | $187 | $202 | $217 | $232 | $247 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $189 | $204 | $219 | $234 | $249 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.53 | 26.36 | 21.05 | 31.65 | 3.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.88 | 22.15 | 17.29 | 25.15 | 2.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.66 | 20.98 | 17.24 | 23.92 | 2.19 |
| P/FCF | 28.08 | 28.53 | 21.34 | 32.58 | 4.33 |
| P/FFO | 21.78 | 21.59 | 17.88 | 26.17 | 2.60 |
| P/AFFO | 25.51 | 24.92 | 20.22 | 31.03 | 3.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.97 | 8.12 | 6.91 | 8.52 | 0.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.06 | 4.25 | 3.35 | 4.63 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HON's fair value at $280.90 vs the current price of $212.50, implying +32.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $280.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $217.67 (P10) to $253.26 (P90), with a median of $235.10.
HON's current P/E of 28.9x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -16.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover HON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $243.83 (range: $195.00 — $273.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HON trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HON's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -3.9σ, meaning margins are 3.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6770.0% to approximately $356. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.