MODEL VERDICT
HarborOne Bancorp, Inc. (HONE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $9.73 | -19.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $14.59 | +20.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $13.38 | +10.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $10.82 | -10.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $9.72 | -19.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $9.64 | -20.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.63 | +4.3% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (10%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Base Case (14.9%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.06 | 17.92 | 13.02 | 44.25 | 12.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.52 | 22.66 | 8.20 | 66.86 | 20.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.80 | 20.03 | 7.67 | 52.33 | 15.37 |
| P/FCF | 44.30 | 9.83 | 3.51 | 188.55 | 80.69 |
| P/FFO | 19.19 | 15.38 | 11.69 | 32.70 | 8.25 |
| P/TBV | 1.26 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 1.95 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 24.17 | 16.00 | 13.19 | 51.22 | 14.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.54 | 2.90 | 1.56 | 3.23 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HONE's fair value at $12.63 vs the current price of $12.10, implying +4.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.37 (P10) to $14.80 (P90), with a median of $13.06.
HONE's current P/E of 18.3x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +24.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
6 analysts cover HONE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +15.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HONE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9660.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.