MODEL VERDICT
Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $12.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $12.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $12.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $12.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $12.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $5.77 | -54.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $21.97 | +74.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $20.87 | +65.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $22.15 | +75.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $5.77 | -54.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $11.89 | -5.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.90 | +2.5% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (-12.6%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-17%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.68 | 11.01 | 7.08 | 23.83 | 5.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.09 | 9.48 | 7.71 | 15.45 | 2.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.02 | 9.48 | 7.71 | 14.91 | 2.54 |
| P/FCF | 7.77 | 8.40 | 3.16 | 13.92 | 3.98 |
| P/TBV | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.80 | 1.21 | 0.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.99 | 2.01 | 1.33 | 2.97 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOPE's fair value at $12.90 vs the current price of $12.59, implying +2.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.86 (P10) to $13.98 (P90), with a median of $12.87.
HOPE's current P/E of 27.4x compares to the industry median of 12.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +118.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover HOPE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.50 (range: $14.50 — $14.50), implying +15.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HOPE trades at the 9660th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HOPE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4330.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.