MODEL VERDICT
Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 69 analyst estimates | $0.97 | -24.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $8.17 | +538.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $8.61 | +572.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.79 | +118.1% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 9.94 | 8.12 | 4.76 | 20.08 | 6.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.94 | 8.12 | 4.76 | 20.08 | 6.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.82 | 10.41 | 1.62 | 24.51 | 9.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates HRTX's fair value at $2.79 vs the current price of $1.28, implying +118.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.84 (P10) to $4.33 (P90), with a median of $3.04.
HRTX's current P/E of -14.4x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -161.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover HRTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.67 (range: $5.00 — $9.00), implying +421.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HRTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.