MODEL VERDICT
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $21.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $20.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $21.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $20.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $20.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 13 REIT peers | $27.77 | +31.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 8 REIT peers | $32.90 | +55.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $23.92 | +13.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $73.43 | +247.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $13.77 | -34.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $28.48 | +34.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $28.37 | +34.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $21.92 | +3.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $18.79 | -11.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.61 | +35.4% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Base Case (-4.7%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.14 | 17.70 | 11.34 | 18.72 | 3.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.05 | 18.30 | 9.91 | 191.01 | 71.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.54 | 10.99 | 9.93 | 33.20 | 9.16 |
| P/FCF | 15.53 | 14.95 | 12.63 | 19.60 | 2.97 |
| P/FFO | 9.67 | 8.69 | 6.08 | 16.45 | 3.53 |
| P/TBV | 1.78 | 1.82 | 1.60 | 2.03 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 17.46 | 14.05 | 7.93 | 38.12 | 10.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.78 | 1.82 | 1.60 | 2.03 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.21 | 2.48 | 2.18 | 6.37 | 1.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HST's fair value at $28.61 vs the current price of $21.13, implying +35.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.99 (P10) to $33.91 (P90), with a median of $28.39.
HST's current P/E of 21.3x compares to the industry median of 28.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -25.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.1x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
42 analysts cover HST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $18.00 — $22.00), implying -5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HST trades at the 1250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7430.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.