MODEL VERDICT
Humana Inc. (HUM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $190.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $189.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $184.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $181.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $276.85 | Below threshold | -31.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $220.29 | +15.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $351.13 | +84.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $157.54 | -17.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $165.63 | -13.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $215.67 | +13.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $209.07 | +9.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1860.85 | +876.6% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $217.64 | +14.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $313.90 | +64.7% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $153 | $173 | $193 | $214 | $234 |
| Conservative (5%) | $157 | $178 | $199 | $220 | $241 |
| Base Case (-13.1%) | $130 | $147 | $165 | $182 | $199 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $123 | $140 | $156 | $173 | $189 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.42 | 22.89 | 16.21 | 25.42 | 3.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.96 | 16.63 | 11.46 | 18.27 | 2.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.38 | 14.72 | 10.73 | 16.52 | 2.08 |
| P/FCF | 23.43 | 18.87 | 10.86 | 65.24 | 19.15 |
| P/FFO | 15.96 | 16.46 | 13.70 | 17.88 | 1.70 |
| P/TBV | 10.82 | 6.59 | 5.71 | 25.30 | 7.21 |
| P/AFFO | 22.43 | 23.72 | 18.08 | 26.05 | 3.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.61 | 3.90 | 1.86 | 4.24 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.26 | 0.76 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUM's fair value at $313.90 vs the current price of $190.54, implying +64.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $313.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $263.99 (P10) to $361.71 (P90), with a median of $312.11.
HUM's current P/E of 19.1x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -13.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
43 analysts cover HUM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $235.00 (range: $146.00 — $345.00), implying +23.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (28), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HUM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23600.0% to approximately $640. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.