MODEL VERDICT
Humana Inc. (HUM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $233.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $215.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $205.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $198.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $192.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $216.66 | -7.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $437.21 | +87.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $179.86 | -23.0% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $177.87 | -23.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $217.68 | -6.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $308.11 | +31.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1074.15 | +359.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $168.69 | -27.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $308.14 | +31.9% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $201 | $221 | $241 | $261 | $281 |
| Conservative (5%) | $207 | $227 | $248 | $269 | $289 |
| Base Case (-17.2%) | $163 | $179 | $196 | $212 | $228 |
| Bull Case (-23%) | $151 | $166 | $181 | $196 | $212 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.78 | 22.89 | 16.21 | 26.03 | 3.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.56 | 17.80 | 11.51 | 19.04 | 2.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.01 | 15.69 | 10.78 | 17.43 | 2.40 |
| P/FCF | 31.59 | 18.87 | 10.86 | 82.53 | 29.50 |
| P/FFO | 15.61 | 15.38 | 13.70 | 17.83 | 1.48 |
| P/TBV | 10.52 | 6.23 | 4.47 | 25.30 | 7.45 |
| P/AFFO | 21.92 | 21.11 | 18.08 | 26.05 | 3.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.31 | 3.73 | 1.74 | 4.24 | 1.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.70 | 0.24 | 0.76 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUM's fair value at $308.14 vs the current price of $233.63, implying +31.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $308.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $262.67 (P10) to $367.74 (P90), with a median of $314.43.
HUM's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +7.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
44 analysts cover HUM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $246.00 (range: $146.00 — $344.00), implying +5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (28), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HUM trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HUM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20770.0% to approximately $719. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.