Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$190.54
→
Intrinsic$145.43
-24%
$75.89$145.43$277.55
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
HUM trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $191, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $76 → Bull $278. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $189 | $212 | $237 | $264 |
| 10% | $113 | $128 | $145 | $164 |
| 12% | $70 | $82 | $95 | $108 |
| 14% | $43 | $52 | $63 | $73 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($278) offers 46% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 13% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($76) implies 60% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 13% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 24% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Net Income Projection
Year 1$1.36B
Year 2$1.53B
Year 3$1.73B
Year 4$1.94B
Year 5$2.19B
Terminal$32.23B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate12.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$1.21BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.