MODEL VERDICT
ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $112.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $102.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $119.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $116.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $106.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $213.08 | +88.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $197.75 | +75.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $234.77 | +108.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $231.10 | +104.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $272.01 | +141.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $271.18 | +140.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $54.30 | -51.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $260.09 | +130.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $241.87 | +114.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $236.48 | +109.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $230.57 | +104.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $268.41 | +137.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $78 | $98 | $118 | $137 | $157 |
| Conservative (5%) | $80 | $100 | $120 | $140 | $160 |
| Base Case (7.0%) | $82 | $102 | $122 | $143 | $163 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $83 | $104 | $125 | $146 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.01 | 31.25 | 21.90 | 137.64 | 41.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.60 | 25.32 | 18.58 | 68.52 | 17.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.19 | 17.49 | 12.91 | 35.15 | 7.45 |
| P/FCF | 26.14 | 25.86 | 15.57 | 38.04 | 7.79 |
| P/FFO | 21.62 | 19.54 | 13.60 | 41.05 | 9.33 |
| P/TBV | 13.73 | 14.03 | 12.26 | 14.89 | 1.34 |
| P/AFFO | 25.10 | 22.14 | 15.66 | 50.22 | 11.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.64 | 2.61 | 1.83 | 5.78 | 1.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.95 | 2.88 | 2.07 | 3.85 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ICLR's fair value at $268.41 vs the current price of $112.85, implying +137.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $268.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $227.95 (P10) to $311.43 (P90), with a median of $266.20.
ICLR's current P/E of 11.8x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -51.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover ICLR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $149.63 (range: $100.00 — $222.00), implying +32.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ICLR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 35860.0% to approximately $517. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.