...

ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$182.56
→
Intrinsic$424.70
+133%
$277.41$424.70$704.18
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ICLR could have 133% upside at 24% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $183, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 24%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $277 → Bull $704. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →20%22%24%26%
8%$530$576$625$677
10%$360$391$425$460
12%$266$289$314$340
14%$206$225$244$265

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($704) offers 286% upside at 29% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (24%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($277) with 19% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 24% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.39B
Year 2$1.72B
Year 3$2.14B
Year 4$2.66B
Year 5$3.30B
Terminal$48.58B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate24.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.12BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare ICLR vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ICLR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

ICLR trades at $182.56 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $357.48, implying +77% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 24.2% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of ICLR's future cash flows. The bear case ($221.77) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is ICLR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.12B, projected at 24.2% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.06B net debt and dividing by 0.08B shares: Bear $221.77 | Base $357.48 | Bull $557.33. Current price $182.56 implies +77% to base case.

How is ICLR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 24.2% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($32.75B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.