MODEL VERDICT
IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $655.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $599.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $537.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $529.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $532.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $732.83 | +11.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $588.86 | -10.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $843.92 | +28.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $491.97 | -25.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $753.05 | +14.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $547.49 | -16.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $2034.18 | +210.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $464.38 | -29.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $414.68 | -36.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $843.84 | +28.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $491.95 | -25.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $572.14 | -12.7% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 41× | 44× (Current) | 47× | 50× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $685 | $739 | $793 | $847 | $902 |
| Conservative (33%) | $757 | $816 | $876 | $936 | $996 |
| Base Case (50.1%) | $857 | $924 | $992 | $1060 | $1127 |
| Bull Case (68%) | $957 | $1033 | $1108 | $1184 | $1259 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.60 | 20.32 | 16.03 | 25.90 | 4.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.73 | 13.29 | 9.92 | 19.77 | 3.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.15 | 10.50 | 8.47 | 18.15 | 3.36 |
| P/FCF | 22.47 | 19.28 | 11.87 | 35.88 | 10.60 |
| P/FFO | 15.02 | 12.79 | 11.74 | 22.25 | 3.95 |
| P/TBV | 5.76 | 5.06 | 3.17 | 10.63 | 2.69 |
| P/AFFO | 18.89 | 19.44 | 13.15 | 27.49 | 5.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.11 | 3.23 | 1.90 | 8.84 | 2.53 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.34 | 2.33 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IESC's fair value at $572.14 vs the current price of $655.64, implying -12.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $572.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $492.04 (P10) to $591.86 (P90), with a median of $540.92.
IESC's current P/E of 43.7x compares to the industry median of 56.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -22.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
1 analysts cover IESC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $458.00 (range: $458.00 — $458.00), implying -30.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.3% is 5.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.5%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$178. (2) Multiple compression: IESC trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IESC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7290.0% to approximately $178. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.