...

IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$419.76
→
Intrinsic$385.13
-8%
$262.83$385.13$617.16
Market implies 27% growth for 5 years
IESC appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $420, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (27%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $263 → Bull $617. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$473$511$552$595
10%$332$358$385$414
12%$253$273$293$315
14%$204$219$235$252

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($617) offers 47% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($263) implies 37% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$273.55M
Year 2$341.94M
Year 3$427.43M
Year 4$534.28M
Year 5$667.86M
Terminal$9.83B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$218.84MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare IESC vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is IESC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

IESC trades at $419.76 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $319.37, implying -23% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($480.21) suggests limited upside.

What is IESC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $219M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-39M net debt and dividing by 0.02B shares: Bear $210.14 | Base $319.37 | Bull $480.21. Current price $419.76 implies -23% to base case.

How is IESC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($6.41B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.