MODEL VERDICT
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $135.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $127.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $134.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $132.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $120.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $103.48 | -23.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $122.68 | -9.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $142.19 | +4.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $162.85 | +19.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $140.82 | +3.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $167.68 | +23.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $38.40 | -71.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $126.32 | -7.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $103.74 | -23.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $143.18 | +5.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $167.46 | +23.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $262.80 | +93.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $117 | $128 | $139 | $150 | $161 |
| Conservative (5%) | $120 | $131 | $143 | $154 | $166 |
| Base Case (4.2%) | $119 | $130 | $142 | $153 | $164 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $121 | $132 | $144 | $155 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.62 | 60.59 | 24.11 | 81.17 | 25.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.57 | 49.92 | 17.99 | 60.46 | 19.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 143.87 | 55.16 | 18.78 | 446.37 | 202.74 |
| P/FCF | 100.14 | 59.73 | 21.70 | 291.04 | 96.52 |
| P/FFO | 44.16 | 47.74 | 18.02 | 63.13 | 19.81 |
| P/TBV | 103.84 | 22.02 | 13.18 | 411.34 | 145.71 |
| P/AFFO | 55.17 | 59.16 | 20.97 | 81.37 | 26.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.39 | 7.42 | 3.72 | 11.34 | 2.97 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.04 | 6.73 | 4.65 | 16.43 | 4.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ILMN's fair value at $262.80 vs the current price of $135.78, implying +93.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $262.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.67 (P10) to $460.75 (P90), with a median of $272.24.
ILMN's current P/E of 25.0x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -4.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.6x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
50 analysts cover ILMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $147.38 (range: $122.00 — $170.00), implying +8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (24), Hold (19), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ILMN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.