Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$101.27
→
Intrinsic$253.62
+150%
$177.49$253.62$398.05
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests INCY could have 150% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $101, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $177 → Bull $398. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $309 | $332 | $357 | $384 |
| 10% | $220 | $236 | $254 | $272 |
| 12% | $172 | $184 | $196 | $210 |
| 14% | $141 | $150 | $160 | $171 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($398) offers 293% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($177) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.69B
Year 2$2.12B
Year 3$2.65B
Year 4$3.31B
Year 5$4.13B
Terminal$60.83B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.35BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.