MODEL VERDICT
Inogen, Inc. (INGN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $58.28 | +942.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $54.87 | +881.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.12 | +796.5% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 65.29 | 67.13 | 60.15 | 68.59 | 4.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.34 | 46.17 | 18.01 | 118.99 | 43.54 |
| P/FCF | 51.33 | 49.93 | 44.59 | 59.48 | 7.54 |
| P/FFO | 53.74 | 47.14 | 43.69 | 77.01 | 15.77 |
| P/TBV | 3.79 | 2.76 | 0.79 | 9.18 | 3.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.10 | 2.07 | 0.62 | 9.01 | 2.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.80 | 2.14 | 0.40 | 7.81 | 2.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates INGN's fair value at $50.12 vs the current price of $5.59, implying +796.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.87 (P10) to $79.99 (P90), with a median of $54.63.
INGN's current P/E of -3.7x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -110.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover INGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying +365.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for INGN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.