MODEL VERDICT
Inter Parfums, Inc. (IPAR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $100.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $103.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $102.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $100.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $88.38 | Pending | +13.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $96.89 | -3.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $129.18 | +28.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $136.06 | +35.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $122.14 | +21.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $163.90 | +62.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $139.55 | +38.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $177.76 | +76.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $105.05 | +4.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $89.84 | -10.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $135.75 | +34.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $121.86 | +20.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $150.80 | +49.6% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $89 | $100 | $111 | $123 | $134 |
| Conservative (14%) | $94 | $105 | $117 | $129 | $140 |
| Base Case (21.9%) | $100 | $112 | $125 | $137 | $150 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $106 | $119 | $133 | $146 | $159 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.29 | 38.27 | 25.53 | 49.99 | 8.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.57 | 19.50 | 15.54 | 25.19 | 3.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.25 | 18.15 | 14.16 | 22.69 | 3.15 |
| P/FCF | 44.81 | 36.31 | 23.10 | 88.32 | 25.20 |
| P/FFO | 30.06 | 31.89 | 21.52 | 40.49 | 6.90 |
| P/TBV | 5.98 | 6.21 | 3.92 | 7.77 | 1.18 |
| P/AFFO | 77.92 | 39.78 | 22.47 | 284.41 | 101.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.03 | 3.92 | 2.73 | 5.19 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.28 | 3.23 | 2.84 | 3.87 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IPAR's fair value at $150.80 vs the current price of $100.78, implying +49.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $150.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.42 (P10) to $159.50 (P90), with a median of $141.69.
IPAR's current P/E of 19.7x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -25.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
19 analysts cover IPAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $107.50 (range: $103.00 — $112.00), implying +6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IPAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5390.0% to approximately $155. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.