Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$100.78
→
Intrinsic$177.28
+76%
$120.10$177.28$285.83
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests IPAR could have 76% upside at 22% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $101, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (22%).
Range: Bear $120 → Bull $286. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 18% | 20% | 22% | 24% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $217 | $235 | $255 | $275 |
| 10% | $152 | $164 | $177 | $191 |
| 12% | $116 | $125 | $135 | $145 |
| 14% | $93 | $100 | $108 | $116 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($286) offers 184% upside at 26% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (22%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($120) with 18% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 22% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$223.01M
Year 2$271.91M
Year 3$331.53M
Year 4$404.23M
Year 5$492.87M
Terminal$7.25B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate21.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$182.90MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.