MODEL VERDICT
Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $38.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $41.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $37.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $37.06 | -6.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $50.15 | +27.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $32.47 | -17.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $41.11 | +4.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $158.49 | +301.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $61.48 | +55.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $5.96 | -84.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $27.52 | -30.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $98.67 | +150.2% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 289.36 | 186.94 | 16.40 | 767.16 | 352.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 174.46 | 82.74 | 14.99 | 690.51 | 257.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.08 | 16.60 | 7.93 | 21.11 | 4.61 |
| P/FCF | 22.87 | 21.69 | 6.25 | 38.40 | 10.01 |
| P/FFO | 16.91 | 18.62 | 5.77 | 22.73 | 6.26 |
| P/TBV | 5.50 | 6.16 | 2.18 | 8.97 | 2.22 |
| P/AFFO | 44.53 | 25.19 | 8.36 | 172.42 | 56.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.57 | 4.28 | 2.11 | 6.03 | 1.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.53 | 6.62 | 2.15 | 9.28 | 2.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates IRDM's fair value at $98.67 vs the current price of $39.44, implying +150.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $98.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.67 (P10) to $158.72 (P90), with a median of $96.56.
IRDM's current P/E of 37.2x compares to the industry median of 35.0x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +6.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 289.4x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover IRDM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.50 (range: $26.00 — $45.00), implying -10.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IRDM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.