MODEL VERDICT
Isabella Bank Corporation (ISBA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $40.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $41.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $45.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $48.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $48.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $31.01 | -24.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $42.85 | +4.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $26.94 | -34.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $40.01 | -2.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $30.99 | -24.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $36.66 | -10.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.97 | -22.0% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $32 | $38 | $43 | $49 | $54 |
| Conservative (9%) | $33 | $39 | $45 | $50 | $56 |
| Base Case (13.8%) | $35 | $41 | $47 | $52 | $58 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $36 | $43 | $49 | $55 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.95 | 13.97 | 8.08 | 19.53 | 4.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.58 | 11.24 | 5.96 | 28.62 | 8.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.01 | 10.30 | 4.70 | 23.30 | 7.38 |
| P/FCF | 9.68 | 8.50 | 7.57 | 15.81 | 2.95 |
| P/FFO | 10.01 | 10.17 | 7.39 | 12.17 | 2.10 |
| P/TBV | 1.38 | 1.22 | 0.93 | 2.74 | 0.61 |
| P/AFFO | 11.37 | 11.39 | 8.52 | 14.02 | 2.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.73 | 1.59 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.41 | 2.35 | 1.79 | 3.29 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ISBA's fair value at $31.97 vs the current price of $40.99, implying -22.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.47 (P10) to $36.10 (P90), with a median of $32.75.
ISBA's current P/E of 16.0x compares to the industry median of 12.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +32.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover ISBA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $47.00 (range: $47.00 — $47.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ISBA trades at the 7520th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ISBA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 530.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.