ORIX Corporation (IX)
Valuation Overview•Is ORIX Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 60/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
IX demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (22.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 26.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $938.9B | +22.8% | — | — | +4.1% | |
| EBITDA | $520.6B | — | +21.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $58.6B | +35.1% | +17.8% | — | +6.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $54.33 | +37.9% | +22.4% | +22.2% | +7.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4T | +14.7% | +21.1% | +5.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 34.9% | 38.5% | 38.4% | 36.4% |
| Operating Margin | 26.3% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| Net Margin | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| FCF Margin | 41.3% | 40.9% | 38.3% | 32.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.35 | $0.34 | -1.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.51 | $0.69 | +35.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.57 | $0.99 | +74.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.54 | $0.65 | +20.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.66 | $0.46 | -30.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.02 | $0.51 | +2839.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.50 | $0.56 | +12.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.48 | — |
Total return is +82.1% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +61.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +31.4% | +24.0% | — |
| 1Y | +82.1% | +61.3% | +4.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +31.9% | +13.4% | +13.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +19.2% | +8.2% | +21.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.1% | -1.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ORIX Corporation (IX) valuation, health, and returns.
ORIX Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -36.4% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $25.54)
ORIX Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $25.54 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $6492.55. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ORIX Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 60/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.3%.
ORIX Corporation pays a 2.6% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.3% buyback yield.
ORIX Corporation's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +22.8% 1Y revenue growth and +37.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for ORIX Corporation include: -20.3% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.97x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.