MODEL VERDICT
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $145.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $141.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $140.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $137.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $142.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $115.45 | -20.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $118.72 | -18.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $89.48 | -38.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $39.78 | -72.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $105.97 | -27.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $31.66 | -78.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $132.13 | -8.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $138.87 | -4.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $131.77 | -9.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $89.48 | -38.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $39.56 | -72.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.38 | -41.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $136 | $148 | $159 | $171 | $183 |
| Conservative (17%) | $144 | $156 | $169 | $181 | $193 |
| Base Case (25.6%) | $155 | $168 | $182 | $195 | $208 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $166 | $181 | $195 | $209 | $223 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.98 | 35.82 | 21.43 | 75.08 | 18.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.25 | 32.63 | 21.45 | 38.39 | 5.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.26 | 18.01 | 14.81 | 23.78 | 2.87 |
| P/FCF | 39.04 | 30.30 | 19.77 | 81.17 | 22.35 |
| P/FFO | 21.37 | 21.16 | 15.09 | 27.40 | 4.07 |
| P/AFFO | 29.33 | 26.32 | 18.22 | 49.92 | 10.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.94 | 2.50 | 1.71 | 6.05 | 1.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.15 | 2.11 | 1.49 | 3.32 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates JCI's fair value at $84.38 vs the current price of $145.08, implying -41.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $84.60 (P10) to $103.08 (P90), with a median of $93.91.
JCI's current P/E of 55.2x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +62.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
45 analysts cover JCI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $138.00 (range: $124.00 — $154.00), implying -4.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.2% is 5.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.9%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$61. (2) Multiple compression: JCI trades at the 8240th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (42.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5780.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.