MODEL VERDICT
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $315.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $338.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $346.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $332.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $317.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $384.01 | +21.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $392.04 | +24.4% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $337.62 | +7.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $330.30 | +4.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $576.82 | +83.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $363.23 | +15.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $1370.82 | +334.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $906.07 | +187.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $401.95 | +27.5% | 100% | 77 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $262 | $297 | $332 | $367 | $402 |
| Conservative (11%) | $272 | $308 | $345 | $381 | $417 |
| Base Case (16.3%) | $286 | $324 | $362 | $401 | $439 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $300 | $340 | $380 | $420 | $460 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.75 | 19.27 | 12.01 | 40.44 | 9.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.74 | 14.66 | 10.77 | 17.47 | 2.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.22 | 12.73 | 9.56 | 13.34 | 1.30 |
| P/FCF | 19.17 | 19.01 | 8.04 | 28.91 | 7.04 |
| P/FFO | 12.87 | 12.33 | 8.91 | 16.24 | 2.50 |
| P/TBV | 11.98 | 10.31 | 7.23 | 23.61 | 5.76 |
| P/AFFO | 16.90 | 16.18 | 11.62 | 24.35 | 4.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.28 | 2.18 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates JLL's fair value at $401.95 vs the current price of $315.24, implying +27.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $401.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $357.61 (P10) to $416.38 (P90), with a median of $386.62.
JLL's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 35.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -45.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover JLL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $382.75 (range: $348.00 — $425.00), implying +21.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JLL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 280.0% to approximately $324. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.