Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$248.43
→
Intrinsic$154.83
-38%
$102.36$154.83$259.27
Market implies 19% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $248, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (19%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $102 → Bull $259. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $190 | $208 | $228 | $248 |
| 10% | $130 | $142 | $155 | $169 |
| 12% | $98 | $107 | $116 | $127 |
| 14% | $78 | $85 | $93 | $101 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($259) offers 4% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($102) implies 59% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 19% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 38% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$21.43B
Year 2$23.14B
Year 3$25.00B
Year 4$26.99B
Year 5$29.15B
Terminal$461.99B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$19.84BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.