MODEL VERDICT
The St. Joe Company (JOE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $61.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $71.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $68.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $66.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $67.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $36.00 | -41.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 4 REIT peers | $46.50 | -24.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $54.72 | -11.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $12.25 | -80.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $21.20 | -65.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $60.34 | -2.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $7.64 | -87.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $78.15 | +26.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $50.70 | -17.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.71 | -11.4% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $59 | $63 | $67 | $72 | $76 |
| Conservative (14%) | $61 | $66 | $70 | $75 | $80 |
| Base Case (21.0%) | $65 | $70 | $75 | $80 | $85 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $69 | $74 | $80 | $85 | $90 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.35 | 40.98 | 29.68 | 55.13 | 8.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.33 | 31.04 | 15.88 | 45.57 | 9.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.38 | 30.63 | 19.03 | 45.69 | 8.49 |
| P/FFO | 29.34 | 30.13 | 20.98 | 43.20 | 7.83 |
| P/TBV | 4.00 | 4.41 | 2.25 | 5.03 | 0.98 |
| P/AFFO | 25.52 | 23.23 | 21.52 | 31.82 | 5.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.00 | 4.41 | 2.25 | 5.03 | 0.98 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.66 | 9.02 | 6.51 | 15.60 | 3.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates JOE's fair value at $54.71 vs the current price of $61.74, implying -11.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.73 (P10) to $62.23 (P90), with a median of $56.33.
JOE's current P/E of 30.9x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +2.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover JOE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JOE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4370.0% to approximately $89. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.