MODEL VERDICT
JOYY Inc. (JOYY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $59.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $62.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $61.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $64.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $66.40 | Pending | -2.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $446.57 | +648.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $42.95 | -28.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $42.80 | -28.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $98.59 | +65.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $99.21 | +66.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $42.95 | -28.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $210.44 | +252.7% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.59 | 8.27 | 4.70 | 19.74 | 5.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.30 | 35.99 | 3.12 | 62.46 | 24.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.42 | 15.24 | 7.22 | 52.09 | 18.19 |
| P/FCF | 29.30 | 10.81 | 6.54 | 138.93 | 48.48 |
| P/FFO | 13.47 | 7.52 | 4.06 | 44.58 | 15.41 |
| P/TBV | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.09 | 1.67 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 9.00 | 8.44 | 4.52 | 13.08 | 3.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.42 | 1.22 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.55 | 1.28 | 0.96 | 3.34 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates JOYY's fair value at $210.44 vs the current price of $59.67, implying +252.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $210.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.99 (P10) to $394.66 (P90), with a median of $225.85.
JOYY's current P/E of -22.9x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -228.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover JOYY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $66.00 (range: $66.00 — $66.00), implying +10.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JOYY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.