MODEL VERDICT
iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $1.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $1.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $1.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $1.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $2.05 | Pending | -4.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $15.58 | +873.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $50.09 | +3030.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $25.46 | +1491.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $35.97 | +2148.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $26.12 | +1532.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $32.94 | +1958.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $42.10 | +2531.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $30.34 | +1796.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $25.46 | +1491.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $35.90 | +2143.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.96 | +1459.7% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 13.39 | 6.97 | 4.94 | 28.28 | 12.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.57 | 1.82 | 0.91 | 6.94 | 2.08 |
| P/FFO | 1.20 | 1.27 | 0.30 | 2.54 | 0.93 |
| P/TBV | 2.97 | 3.71 | 0.84 | 4.37 | 1.88 |
| P/AFFO | 1.03 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 2.83 | 1.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.76 | 0.64 | 0.15 | 1.60 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.53 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates IQ's fair value at $24.96 vs the current price of $1.60, implying +1459.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.58 (P10) to $35.72 (P90), with a median of $27.87.
IQ's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 33.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -56.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover IQ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.16 (range: $2.10 — $2.22), implying +35.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IQ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.