MODEL VERDICT
DouYu International Holdings Limited (DOYU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 34 analyst estimates | $18.76 | +216.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 38 industry peers | $25.04 | +323.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 39 industry peers | $17.53 | +196.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.46 | +211.8% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 81.55 | 83.04 | 75.24 | 86.36 | 5.71 |
| P/FFO | 167.66 | 138.46 | 22.95 | 370.77 | 158.99 |
| P/TBV | 2.09 | 1.12 | 0.46 | 5.35 | 2.01 |
| P/AFFO | 5874.62 | 71.03 | 23.86 | 17528.97 | 10092.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.04 | 1.10 | 0.45 | 5.23 | 1.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOYU's fair value at $18.46 vs the current price of $5.92, implying +211.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.68 (P10) to $31.34 (P90), with a median of $19.85.
DOYU's current P/E of -42.3x compares to the industry median of 18.0x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -334.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 81.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover DOYU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.03 (range: $5.50 — $15.00), implying +52.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DOYU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.