MODEL VERDICT
Kadant Inc. (KAI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $285.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $312.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $331.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $324.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $325.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $199.10 | -30.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $229.54 | -19.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $292.58 | +2.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $261.86 | -8.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $280.94 | -1.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $257.31 | -10.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $286.86 | +0.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $213.80 | -25.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $198.63 | -30.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $303.01 | +6.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $264.87 | -7.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $257.44 | -9.9% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $262 | $282 | $302 | $323 | $343 |
| Conservative (10%) | $272 | $293 | $314 | $335 | $356 |
| Base Case (15.9%) | $286 | $308 | $330 | $352 | $374 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $299 | $322 | $345 | $368 | $391 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.99 | 28.31 | 15.37 | 36.39 | 7.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.27 | 19.81 | 12.23 | 24.78 | 5.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.83 | 16.22 | 9.44 | 19.42 | 4.02 |
| P/FCF | 21.94 | 20.00 | 13.80 | 30.25 | 5.85 |
| P/FFO | 18.20 | 18.84 | 11.06 | 25.19 | 5.39 |
| P/TBV | 69.25 | 31.40 | 14.62 | 199.58 | 87.58 |
| P/AFFO | 21.33 | 20.65 | 13.77 | 28.97 | 6.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.64 | 3.28 | 2.47 | 4.75 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.68 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 3.86 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KAI's fair value at $257.44 vs the current price of $285.85, implying -9.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $257.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $222.37 (P10) to $260.81 (P90), with a median of $241.38.
KAI's current P/E of 30.2x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -2.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
6 analysts cover KAI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $303.00 (range: $303.00 — $303.00), implying +6.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KAI trades at the 4170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KAI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3090.0% to approximately $374. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.