MODEL VERDICT
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $29.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $29.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $26.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $26.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $51.37 | +76.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $55.99 | +92.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $43.76 | +50.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $32.93 | +13.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $57.03 | +96.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $23.39 | -19.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $35.63 | +22.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $32.39 | +11.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $36.24 | +24.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $43.14 | +48.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $30.84 | +6.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.18 | +45.0% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.5%) | $25 | $29 | $32 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $30 | $33 | $37 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.23 | 30.59 | 18.31 | 35.31 | 6.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.85 | 22.92 | 15.49 | 26.53 | 3.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.30 | 18.27 | 12.11 | 19.31 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 27.52 | 23.47 | 19.48 | 55.34 | 12.52 |
| P/FFO | 19.51 | 20.22 | 13.48 | 23.75 | 3.72 |
| P/AFFO | 24.49 | 26.56 | 16.27 | 31.15 | 5.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.50 | 2.11 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 3.62 | 2.30 | 4.15 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KDP's fair value at $42.18 vs the current price of $29.09, implying +45.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.14 (P10) to $47.81 (P90), with a median of $42.93.
KDP's current P/E of 19.0x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -33.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover KDP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.33 (range: $28.00 — $38.00), implying +11.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KDP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6950.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.