MODEL VERDICT
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $30.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $29.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $29.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $28.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $27.79 | Pending | +2.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $44.44 | +46.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $39.47 | +30.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $40.97 | +35.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $27.52 | -9.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $44.83 | +48.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $20.56 | -32.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $35.97 | +18.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $17.71 | -41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $22.98 | -24.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $40.84 | +34.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $26.98 | -10.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.87 | +18.4% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $29 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Base Case (10.5%) | $27 | $30 | $34 | $37 | $41 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $31 | $35 | $38 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.23 | 30.59 | 18.31 | 35.31 | 6.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.85 | 22.92 | 15.49 | 26.53 | 3.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.30 | 18.27 | 12.11 | 19.31 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 27.52 | 23.47 | 19.48 | 55.34 | 12.52 |
| P/FFO | 19.51 | 20.22 | 13.48 | 23.75 | 3.72 |
| P/AFFO | 24.49 | 26.56 | 16.27 | 31.15 | 5.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.50 | 2.11 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 3.62 | 2.30 | 4.15 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KDP's fair value at $35.87 vs the current price of $30.28, implying +18.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.50 (P10) to $43.70 (P90), with a median of $37.56.
KDP's current P/E of 19.8x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -26.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover KDP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.43 (range: $24.00 — $38.00), implying +7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KDP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4060.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.