Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$30.28
→
Intrinsic$11.10
-63%
$4.08$11.10$24.45
Market implies 27% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 10% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $30, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (27%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $4 → Bull $24. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| 10% | $8 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
| 12% | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| 14% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($24) with 13% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($4) implies 87% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 27% growth expectations vs 10% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 63% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.66B
Year 2$1.84B
Year 3$2.03B
Year 4$2.24B
Year 5$2.48B
Terminal$36.43B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.50BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.