Knife River Corporation (KNF)
Valuation Overview•Is Knife River Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 38/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
KNF struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (7.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (10.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 8.8%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $410.1M | +8.5% | +7.5% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$86.3M | — | +15.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$79.2M | -22.1% | +10.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.40 | -22.3% | +10.4% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$135.9M | -146.4% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 18.3% | 19.0% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Operating Margin | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Net Margin | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| FCF Margin | -0.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-1.42 | $-1.40 | +1.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.41 | $0.56 | +36.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.45 | $2.52 | +2.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.27 | $0.89 | -29.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.89 | $-1.21 | -36.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.40 | $0.41 | +2.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.81 | $2.60 | -7.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.24 | $1.37 | +10.5% |
Total return is +9.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -15.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +18.6% | +9.3% | — |
| 1Y | +9.1% | -15.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +24.1% | +3.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +17.0% | +3.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +8.1% | -5.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Knife River Corporation (KNF) valuation, health, and returns.
Knife River Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -72.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $23.36)
Knife River Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $23.36 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $89.81 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $99.75 (implying +15.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Knife River Corporation displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 38/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.6 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.1%.
Knife River Corporation does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Knife River Corporation's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +8.5% 1Y revenue growth and -22.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +7.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 7 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +15.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Knife River Corporation include: -36.6% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.48x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.48x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.