Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (KNSA)
Valuation Overview•Is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 65/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
KNSA demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($156M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (45.5% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 12.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $214.3M | +60.1% | +45.5% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $29.3M | — | +86.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $22.6M | +236.6% | -31.5% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.27 | +225.0% | -33.9% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $50.0M | +0.0% | +64.6% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 39.0% | 73.1% | 77.1% | 77.1% |
| Operating Margin | 12.4% | -2.9% | -82.1% | -82.1% |
| Net Margin | 9.7% | 1.2% | -64.5% | -64.5% |
| FCF Margin | 21.8% | 4.9% | -72.7% | -72.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.18 | $0.27 | +50.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.29 | $0.17 | -41.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.33 | $0.23 | -30.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.18 | $0.23 | +27.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.02 | $0.11 | +450.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.06 | $-0.12 | -100.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.02 | $-0.18 | -662.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.09 | $-0.06 | +33.3% |
Total return is +103.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +82.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +40.8% | +33.4% | — |
| 1Y | +103.5% | +82.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +59.5% | +37.4% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +32.0% | +21.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +11.7% | -1.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (KNSA) valuation, health, and returns.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -24.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $44.45)
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $44.45 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $16.93 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $64.00 (implying +8.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 65/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 14.4 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 17.1%.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +60.1% 1Y revenue growth and +225.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +45.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +8.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. include: -21.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.18x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.