MODEL VERDICT
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (KNSA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $44.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $47.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $45.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $44.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $42.67 | Below threshold | +3.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $32.71 | -26.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $21.79 | -51.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $15.79 | -64.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $8.50 | -80.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $22.97 | -48.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $9.43 | -78.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $84.57 | +90.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $87.48 | +96.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $17.78 | -60.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $8.90 | -80.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.12 | -34.5% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $40 | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $59 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.49 | 55.00 | 5.76 | 87.70 | 41.25 |
| P/FCF | 116.15 | 111.99 | 55.59 | 185.01 | 54.68 |
| P/FFO | 36.51 | 27.05 | 5.68 | 76.81 | 36.49 |
| P/TBV | 3.72 | 3.35 | 2.65 | 5.90 | 1.21 |
| P/AFFO | 36.74 | 27.12 | 5.68 | 77.42 | 36.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.57 | 3.22 | 2.65 | 5.74 | 1.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.71 | 4.79 | 3.34 | 20.94 | 7.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates KNSA's fair value at $29.12 vs the current price of $44.49, implying -34.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.86 (P10) to $35.26 (P90), with a median of $28.47.
KNSA's current P/E of 59.3x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +181.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.5x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
10 analysts cover KNSA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $55.67 (range: $50.00 — $62.00), implying +25.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KNSA trades at the 7290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (49.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KNSA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (21.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 370.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.