MODEL VERDICT
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $81.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $79.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $76.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $70.51 | Below threshold | +10.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $63.54 | -22.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $46.12 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $76.62 | -6.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $30.39 | -62.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $47.90 | -41.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $27.03 | -66.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $74.07 | -9.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $18.11 | -77.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $20.97 | -74.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $75.94 | -6.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $29.84 | -63.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.95 | -31.4% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $73 | $79 | $86 | $92 | $98 |
| Conservative (7%) | $75 | $82 | $88 | $95 | $101 |
| Base Case (11.2%) | $78 | $85 | $91 | $98 | $105 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $80 | $87 | $94 | $101 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.41 | 26.32 | 23.00 | 30.64 | 2.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.87 | 20.79 | 19.08 | 24.56 | 2.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.83 | 24.79 | 22.73 | 27.46 | 1.63 |
| P/FCF | 35.35 | 28.37 | 22.83 | 56.93 | 14.81 |
| P/FFO | 23.30 | 22.98 | 21.30 | 25.62 | 1.71 |
| P/AFFO | 27.51 | 27.89 | 25.03 | 29.70 | 1.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.26 | 10.34 | 8.80 | 11.32 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.32 | 6.41 | 5.59 | 7.18 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KO's fair value at $55.95 vs the current price of $81.56, implying -31.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.20 (P10) to $64.10 (P90), with a median of $55.59.
KO's current P/E of 26.8x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +6.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
47 analysts cover KO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $84.75 (range: $81.00 — $87.00), implying +3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (29), Hold (15), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.3% is 3.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (24.0%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$71. (2) Multiple compression: KO trades at the 4620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1350.0% to approximately $71. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.