Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$81.56
→
Intrinsic$19.25
-76%
$10.23$19.25$37.20
Current price reflects execution expectations above 11% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $10 → Bull $37. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $37).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
| 10% | $15 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| 12% | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| 14% | $6 | $7 | $8 | $10 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($37) with 13% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 11% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($10) implies 87% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 76% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($37) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$5.89B
Year 2$6.55B
Year 3$7.28B
Year 4$8.09B
Year 5$8.99B
Terminal$142.53B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate11.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.30BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.