MODEL VERDICT
Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $25.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $25.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $23.38 | Below threshold | +5.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $23.97 | -8.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $25.50 | -2.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $33.42 | +28.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $10.77 | -58.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $26.87 | +3.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $31.54 | +21.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.70 | +110.0% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 495.20 | 103.91 | 17.37 | 1364.32 | 753.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 58.85 | 64.10 | 19.57 | 84.15 | 22.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.60 | 14.82 | 13.70 | 31.65 | 6.37 |
| P/FCF | 25.23 | 19.94 | 18.51 | 55.99 | 13.61 |
| P/FFO | 12.64 | 12.20 | 7.61 | 19.70 | 3.84 |
| P/TBV | 1.31 | 1.32 | 0.69 | 1.75 | 0.38 |
| P/AFFO | 20.55 | 20.22 | 9.82 | 37.06 | 8.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.23 | 1.22 | 0.61 | 1.63 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.84 | 6.06 | 4.72 | 6.59 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRG's fair value at $54.70 vs the current price of $26.05, implying +110.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.69 (P10) to $87.66 (P90), with a median of $52.05.
KRG's current P/E of 18.9x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -22.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 495.2x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
25 analysts cover KRG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.25 (range: $24.00 — $27.00), implying -3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 35.2% is 33.5 percentage points above the 3-year average (1.7%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$33. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KRG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2650.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.