Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI)
Valuation Overview•Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 74/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
KSPI exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 50.9% ROIC). This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (45.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (21.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 43.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0T | +56.1% | +45.8% | +43.5% | — | |
| EBITDA | $305.8B | — | +6.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $239.0B | -0.1% | +21.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1258.46 | +0.6% | +21.9% | +32.3% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $53.5B | +196.5% | +14.4% | +19.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 70.8% | 66.8% | 76.8% | 74.3% |
| Operating Margin | 43.3% | 45.4% | 60.4% | 56.7% |
| Net Margin | 24.7% | 37.4% | 41.4% | 40.6% |
| FCF Margin | -25.5% | 37.3% | 38.5% | 48.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.59 | $2.63 | +1.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $3.25 | $2.80 | -13.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $3.25 | $2.80 | -13.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $4.31 | $2.72 | -36.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.66 | $2.69 | +1.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.63 | $2.59 | -1.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.63 | $2.59 | -1.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $3.43 | $3.09 | -9.9% |
Total return is +5.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -19.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.0% | +3.7% | — |
| 1Y | +5.6% | -19.4% | +6.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +0.8% | -19.0% | +16.9% |
| 5YCAGR | +1.9% | -10.7% | +24.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.4% | -12.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) valuation, health, and returns.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +76.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $145.27)
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $145.27 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $185557.40 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $95.00 (implying +15.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 74/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 50.9%.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +56.1% 1Y revenue growth and +0.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +45.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 2 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 17% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +15.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz include: -29.5% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.22x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.