Upside case
Bull case
$177997+203744.3%
KSPI would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 31x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
2
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering KSPI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+8.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$72133 – $177997
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.7B
KSPI price targets
Three scenarios for where KSPI stock could go
Current
~$87
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $87
Bear
$72133
Base
$86851
Bull
$177997
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$86851+99363.0%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$72133+82507.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push KSPI down roughly 82507% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz
KSPI · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Kaspi.kz is a Kazakh fintech super-app that combines payments, e-commerce, and financial services in a single mobile platform. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees on its payments platform (~60%), marketplace commissions (~25%), and interest income from its fintech lending products (~15%). Its key advantage is network effects from its dominant payments ecosystem—which drives user engagement across its marketplace and financial services—creating a powerful digital ecosystem moat in Kazakhstan.
Market Cap
$16.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.63T
Net Income TTM
$1.10T
Net Margin
30.3%
KSPI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.69/$2.66
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.72/$4.31
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.80/$3.25
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.80/$3.25
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.69/$2.66 | +1.1% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.72/$4.31 | -36.9% | $2.0B/$2.2B | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.80/$3.25 | -13.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.80/$3.25 | -13.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.85T
+33.8% YoY
FY2
$6.41T
+32.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8187.74
+42.1% YoY
FY2
$11613.44
+41.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$358.4B
FCF Margin: 9.9%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.59
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
KSPI beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
KSPI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $168834 — implies +195264.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
195264.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KSPI
7.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
70% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
KSPI
7.5x
vs
Technology
27.5x
73% discount
vs KSPI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.5x
vs
5Y Average
0.0x
+42782% premium
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Technology
21.7x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-70%
Technology
27.5x
-73%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+42782%
PEG Ratio
0.19x
S&P 500
1.75x
-89%
Technology
1.47x
-87%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-62%
Technology
17.4x
-67%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
15.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-25%
Technology
19.8x
-19%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+42633%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-2%
Technology
2.4x
+27%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+42633%
Dividend Yield
8.31%
S&P 500
1.88%
+343%
Technology
1.18%
+606%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | KSPI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg KSPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 19.1x-100% | 21.7x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.5x | 25.2x-70% | 27.5x-73% | 0.0x+42782% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.19x | 1.75x-89% | 1.47x-87% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8x | 15.3x-62% | 17.4x-67% | — |
| Price/FCF | 15.9x | 21.3x-25% | 19.8x-19% | 0.0x+42633% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 2.4x+27% | 0.0x+42633% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.31% | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
KSPI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKSPI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
KSPI generates $358.4B in free cash flow at a 9.9% margin — 113.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.63T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+53.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
51.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5762.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$358.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
113.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$619.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$398.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
56.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.3%
Dividend
8.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3374.49
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
62.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
191M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKSPI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
The KOSPI is highly sensitive to global economic trends, particularly those in major economies like the US and China. A recent crash saw the KOSPI fall nearly 20% in two days, driven by energy dependency, FX weakness, and leveraged margin calls.
High Risk
Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical developments concerning the Korean Peninsula can trigger significant volatility in the KOSPI. Broader geopolitical events, such as conflicts in the Middle East, can also ripple through financial markets and impact the KOSPI.
High Risk
Company-Specific Risks
Kaspi.kz's business is heavily reliant on the Kazakh economy, creating significant geographic concentration risk. Additionally, changes in Kazakh politics, such as proposed tax increases, could adversely affect Kaspi.kz's profits.
Medium
Dependence on Exports
South Korea's economy relies heavily on exports, making the KOSPI vulnerable to changes in global trade policies and economic downturns in key markets. Sectors like semiconductors and shipbuilding are particularly influential.
Medium
Cash Flow Volatility
Kaspi.kz has experienced negative operating cash flow in some quarters due to investments in working capital, highlighting a potential for lumpy cash flows. This volatility can impact the company's financial stability.
Medium
Interest Rate Risk
Movements in market interest rates can affect income, expenses, and the value of financial instruments for companies like Kaspi.kz, potentially impacting profitability.
Lower
Dividend Suspension
Kaspi.kz has temporarily suspended dividends to fund expansion, which can be a risk for income-focused investors. This decision may affect investor sentiment and stock valuation.
Lower
Loan Portfolio Risk
The existing loan portfolio commands a lower valuation due to inherent default risks. This exposure could impair business operations and access to funding.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KSPI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Super App Ecosystem
Kaspi.kz has established a leading position in Kazakhstan with its super app, which integrates payments, marketplace, and fintech services. It boasts over 95% monthly usage among adults in Kazakhstan, creating strong network effects and customer loyalty.
Strong Financials and Profitability
The company operates a capital-light, highly profitable model, delivering consistent revenue growth of over 30% annually, high profit margins between 37-48%, and exceptional returns on equity ranging from 54-96%. Its reported ROE stands at 67.7% with ROIC estimates above 40%, showcasing its financial strength.
International Expansion Potential
Kaspi's expansion into Turkey, including acquisitions of stakes in Hepsiburada and Rabobank Turkey, presents significant upside optionality. While not essential for the core investment case, successful execution in new markets could further enhance growth prospects.
Customer-Centric Approach
Management's strong alignment with shareholders, holding 40% ownership, and a history of prioritizing customer trust contribute to a durable business model. This focus on customer satisfaction helps maintain a sticky user base.
Attractive Valuation Metrics
KSPI is trading at low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples, with some analyses showing P/E ratios around 7-8x trailing earnings and even lower forward multiples. This suggests the stock may be undervalued given its growth prospects and strong market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KSPI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$87.32
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$68.59
+27.3% from the low
52-Week High
$99.20
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
+15.43%
3 Month
+18.34%
YTD
+12.6%
1 Year
-2.1%
3Y CAGR
-3.1%
5Y CAGR
-1.9%
10Y CAGR
-0.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KSPI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 25.4x median
-100% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+33.8%
vs +27.3% median
+24% above peer median
Net Margin
30.3%
vs 6.8% median
+347% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KSP KSPI Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz | $16.7B | 0.0x | +33.8% | 30.3% | Buy | +8.8% |
SE SE Sea Limited | $54.4B | 25.4x | +31.0% | 6.8% | Buy | +64.0% |
MEL MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $93.3B | 38.6x | +29.3% | 6.9% | Buy | +31.4% |
GRA GRAB Grab Holdings Limited | $15.0B | 34.5x | +27.3% | 10.7% | Buy | +77.7% |
BEK BEKE KE Holdings Inc. | $62.7B | 3.3x | +5.4% | 3.4% | Buy | +17.8% |
TOS TOST Toast, Inc. | $14.8B | 22.8x | +26.8% | 5.6% | Buy | +40.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KSPI Dividend and Capital Return
KSPI returns 8.3% total yield, led by a 8.31% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
8.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
8.31%
Payout Ratio
62.1%
How KSPI Splits Its Return
Div 8.31%
Dividend 8.31%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3374.49
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
21.5%
5Y Div CAGR
46.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
33M
Approx. Share Reduction
17.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
191M
At 17.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.76 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | $7.30 | +13.4% | 15.7% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $6.44 | +178.0% | — | — |
| 2022 | $2.32 | -43.1% | — | — |
| 2021 | $4.07 | +90.1% | — | — |
FAQ
7 questionsKSPI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +8.8% from the current price of $87. The bear case scenario is $72133 and the bull case is $177997.
02What is the KSPI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KSPI is $95 based on 2 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+8.8% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (+8.8%). The base case model target is $86851.
03Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) stock overvalued in 2026?
KSPI trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KSPI in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — The KOSPI is highly sensitive to global economic trends, particularly those in major economies like the US and China. (2) Geopolitical Risks — Geopolitical developments concerning the Korean Peninsula can trigger significant volatility in the KOSPI. (3) Company-Specific Risks — Kaspi. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KSPI will report consensus revenue of $4.85T (+33.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $8187.74 (+42.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.41T in revenue.
06When does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) report its next earnings?
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.59 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, KSPI has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz generate?
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) generated $358.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.9%. KSPI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.3% yield) and share repurchases ($2.9B TTM).