Upside case
Bull case
$92953+112974.2%
KSPI would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
2
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering KSPI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+15.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$44445 – $92953
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.6B
KSPI price targets
Three scenarios for where KSPI stock could go
Current
~$82
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $82
Bear
$44445
Base
$70547
Bull
$92953
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$70547+85718.3%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$44445+53965.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push KSPI down roughly 53966% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz
KSPI · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Kaspi.kz is a Kazakh fintech super-app that combines payments, e-commerce, and financial services in a single mobile platform. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees on its payments platform (~60%), marketplace commissions (~25%), and interest income from its fintech lending products (~15%). Its key advantage is network effects from its dominant payments ecosystem—which drives user engagement across its marketplace and financial services—creating a powerful digital ecosystem moat in Kazakhstan.
Market Cap
$15.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.21T
Net Income TTM
$1.04T
Net Margin
24.7%
KSPI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-10.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$2.72/$4.31
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.80/$3.25
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.80/$3.25
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.63/$2.59
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.72/$4.31 | -36.9% | $2.0B/$2.2B | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.80/$3.25 | -13.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.80/$3.25 | -13.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.63/$2.59 | +1.5% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.91T
+16.4% YoY
FY2
$5.58T
+13.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7126.69
+29.9% YoY
FY2
$8818.37
+23.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.08T
FCF Margin: -25.5%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.78
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
KSPI beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
KSPI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $185557 — implies +225625.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
225625.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KSPI
7.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
70% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
KSPI
7.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
75% discount
vs KSPI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.3x
vs
5Y Average
0.0x
+46130% premium
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-100%
Technology
22.3x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-70%
Technology
29.0x
-75%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+46130%
PEG Ratio
0.23x
S&P 500
1.66x
-86%
Technology
1.51x
-85%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-61%
Technology
16.6x
-64%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+13102%
Price/FCF
5.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-74%
Technology
19.2x
-72%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+22107%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Technology
2.4x
-21%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+35207%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | KSPI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg KSPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 18.8x-100% | 22.3x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.3x | 24.4x-70% | 29.0x-75% | 0.0x+46130% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.23x | 1.66x-86% | 1.51x-85% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | 15.2x-61% | 16.6x-64% | 0.0x+13102% |
| Price/FCF | 5.3x | 20.7x-74% | 19.2x-72% | 0.0x+22107% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-37% | 2.4x-21% | 0.0x+35207% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
KSPI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKSPI Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
KSPI 50.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.21T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+51.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
70.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
43.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5485.76
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.08T
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-25.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
50.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$304.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$43.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
59.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$21.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
190M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKSPI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical and expansion risk
Kaspi.kz's aspiration to expand across Central Asia and the Caucasus introduces geopolitical and operational risks in new markets.
Medium
Acquisition complexity
The Hepsiburada acquisition adds operational complexity and exposes Kaspi.kz to Turkish macroeconomic risks.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Despite strong fundamentals, the market's excessive discount on KSPI stock reflects potential sentiment-driven volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KSPI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong network effects
Kaspi.kz benefits from significant network effects, which enhance its market position and customer retention.
Turkey expansion optionality
The company's expansion into Turkey presents a growth opportunity, despite associated currency volatility risks.
Exceptional returns
Kaspi.kz has demonstrated exceptional financial returns, making it an attractive investment despite recent depreciation.
Geopolitical and regulatory headwinds
Recent stock depreciation is attributed to geopolitical and regulatory challenges, but the core thesis remains intact.
Currency volatility risks
Currency volatility, particularly related to Turkish expansion, is a noted risk but also a potential growth driver.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KSPI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$82.20
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$68.59
+19.8% from the low
52-Week High
$99.20
-17.1% from the high
1 Month
-7.54%
3 Month
+12.49%
YTD
+6.0%
1 Year
-0.9%
3Y CAGR
-5.0%
5Y CAGR
-3.0%
10Y CAGR
-1.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KSPI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 25.9x median
-100% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.4%
vs +17.1% median
-4% below peer median
Net Margin
24.7%
vs 6.4% median
+287% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KSP KSPI Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz | $15.6B | 0.0x | +16.4% | 24.7% | Buy | +15.6% |
SE SE Sea Limited | $55.9B | 25.9x | +19.8% | 6.9% | Buy | +53.0% |
MEL MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $82.9B | 41.4x | +18.8% | 6.0% | Buy | +32.5% |
GRA GRAB Grab Holdings Limited | $14.2B | 33.1x | +17.1% | 10.7% | Buy | +63.9% |
BEK BEKE KE Holdings Inc. | $16.7B | 2.2x | +3.3% | 3.2% | Buy | +53.3% |
TOS TOST Toast, Inc. | $14.3B | 18.5x | +16.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +46.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KSPI Dividend and Capital Return
KSPI returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.39
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
17.0%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$21.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
259M
Approx. Share Reduction
136.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
190M
At 136.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | $7.31 | +13.4% | 15.7% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $6.44 | +175.7% | — | — |
| 2022 | $2.34 | -42.6% | — | — |
| 2021 | $4.07 | +90.1% | — | — |
FAQ
7 questionsKSPI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +15.6% from the current price of $82. The bear case scenario is $44445 and the bull case is $92953.
02What is the KSPI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KSPI is $95 based on 2 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+15.6% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (+15.6%). The base case model target is $70547.
03Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) stock overvalued in 2026?
KSPI trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KSPI in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical and expansion risk — Kaspi. (2) Acquisition complexity — The Hepsiburada acquisition adds operational complexity and exposes Kaspi. (3) Market sentiment risk — Despite strong fundamentals, the market's excessive discount on KSPI stock reflects potential sentiment-driven volatility. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KSPI will report consensus revenue of $4.91T (+16.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $7126.69 (+29.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.58T in revenue.
06When does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) report its next earnings?
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $2.78 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, KSPI has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz generate?
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) had a free cash outflow of $1.08T in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.5%. KSPI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($21.3B TTM).